Kabwe Zitto-Mbunge wa Kigoma Kaskazini,
To H E President Jakaya Kikwete
United Republic of Tanzania
THE licensing process should be suspended until we have proper policy and legislation in place. The terms of the PSCs to be agreed in the 4th Licensing Round will determine how Tanzania benefits from natural gas. The fourth phase presidency could have a huge impact that could last for generations – if it makes the right decisions in the next two years.
There is time. BG announced on May 14 that it would be 3-4 years before they reach the “project sanction/final investment decision” stage. There is enough gas in current reserves to establish an LNG plant jointly managed by BG and Statoil. Three to four years gives you:
Time to negotiate good terms for the processing, liquefaction and marketing of the gas and laws to underpin it. Time to develop a policy and legislation that will govern future licensing rounds, and principles of Production Sharing Contracts. Time to incorporate any new requirements under the new constitution. Time to rescue the situation in Mtwara and stop it spreading to other places.
The trouble in Mtwara is not caused by outsiders
Some say ‘foreign powers’ are behind it. But what foreign power benefits from such unrest? American and UK business interests benefit from the Chinese financed pipeline – it is a vital part of the future infrastructure. Look at how BG and CNOOC cooperate – they have just signed a multibillion dollar agreement in Australia. Why would BG or any other firm be scared of Chinese involvement?
The extent of people’s unhappiness in Mtwara should not be underestimated. It is at all levels of society, cuts across religion, age and sex. It is not caused by the gas but – it includes unmet promises from the first phase, management of the cashew business, the unfinished road to Dar es Salaam…the list goes on.
People’s ignorance of the gas industry – everybody, from boda boda drivers to leaders – makes them very suspicious of the pace at which decisions are being made. No meaningful attempt has been made to explain to them what developments will take place, their location, scale and possible impact and benefits. So “Gesi Haitoki” becomes a simple message that people can understand, support and demonstrate for. It is based in misinformation, but it resonates. It is wrong, but it touches people.
Consequently the level of mistrust of government is very high. A huge effort must be made to win back people’s trust. How?
Ensure that influential local leaders – religious leaders, local radio presenters, not just political leaders – understand how the gas industry works, what developments can be expected and how Mtwara and the nation can benefit.
Work with communities who will be affected by the sitting of LNG plants and related infrastructure. Start planning now – for jobs, growth and development in Mtwara.
Ensure that those that a proper reckoning is made of the violence this week and that those security personnel responsible for death, injury and destruction of property are held accountable along with those who participated in the riots. Justice must be blind.
Zitto Kabwe, MP
24th May 2013 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia